Published in Published in Yahoo! News.
Worse-case scenario ... unlikely
The global impact of this Afghanistan withdrawal on 2012 depends entirely on how it is handled, says retired Army Colonel John Agoglia, who is currently vice president of IDS International, a team of experts on conflict, instability, and crisis. The worst-case scenario involves the country descending into civil war, which would erode the standing of the United States in the region, and which would strengthen militant extremist groups like al-Qaida, the Taliban, and the Haqqani network.
But Agoglia, who spent three years directing the Counterinsurgency Training Center in Kabul, doesn't think that's going to happen. The NATO coalition forces have secured several former Taliban strongholds and have gained the trust the of the Afghan people, as the U.S. is working with the Afghans to help them develop government and economic institutions. For these reasons, Agoglia says the withdrawal is not his preferred strategy, as it limits the Army commander's ability to go after the Haqqani network. But it is possible to remove all 30,000-plus troops this year without leaving behind chaos or safe havens for violent groups like al-Qaida. The most important thing is for the troops to be removed from each region strategically, taking into consideration the strength and stability of the Afghan security forces and government in the area.
If Obama lets politics get the best of him, however, and sets hard-and-fast deadlines to score political points on the home front ahead of the elections, instead of sticking to a conditions-based withdrawal, that's where things could go wrong. But Agoglia believes Obama is aware of the stakes.
"President Obama has said he's committed to resolving the crisis in Afghanistan. He's been working it; he committed to the surge. While the message has been a little back-and-forth in terms of the idea of a conditions-based withdrawal, it seems like his administration understands the need for a conditions-based withdrawal. He's caught between the need for meeting his political goals, but at the same time meeting the objectives of the campaign strategy, so he's walking a fine line. But I don't think he will to go the point of risking the hard-fought gains on the ground from the surge for political expedency."