A blog on the emerging nation of South Sudan.
The Government of South Sudan will attempt to convince the SPLA to become the new nation's formal military force. For decades, the SPLA acted as the guerrilla army that fought for the south's independence. GoSS will argue that the SSLA's "liberation mandate" that it was given by the people to fight the north expired with the creation of South Sudan on July 9th.
The new modern army, the South Sudan Armed Forces, will slowly but surely replace the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) that specialized in guerrilla warfare for 21 years until the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement paved the way for the January referendum.
The government hopes that the new army can be smaller and better than its previous force. Currently, military spending makes up the bulk of the peacetime budget.
This week, 500 officers will graduate from training programs in South Sudan and another 500 will be enrolled, a move the government hopes will increase public trust in security services that are often at the forefront of the new nation’s vast problems with corruption.
The government is also sending individuals abroad to colleges in other English-speaking countries like as Kenya, Uganda, South Africa, and the United States. The U.S Marines are also helping to train some of the SPLA.
Along with civilian disarmament, the government plans for demobilization of armed forces to streamline the army and stabilize the world’s newest nation. It is still plagued by rebel groups that rejected South Sudan President Salva Kiir’s August offer of amnesty.
No one knows how many men are in the SPLA, but the government has pledged to cut 80,000 soldiers and another 70,000 from other security forces, including the police and wildlife services.
However, the government is keen to point out that this process could take years. Taking away jobs from those who fought for years and missed out on an education would be impossible in a country like South Sudan, where no other opportunities really exist.
Some believe the public tide of goodwill may turn if the newfound oil wealth doesn’t trickle down beyond the government’s large military purse and civil service.
Ultimately, the speed at which the government transforms its army into a modern force depends on the stability of the nation.
Last month a coalition of 38 aid agencies called on donors not to squander the opportunity to make a difference in the lives of the people of South Sudan, the world’s newest nation. Donors are due to meet with Government of South Sudan officials over the next coming months to discuss development priorities. The country is one of the poorest in the world, with half the population living below the poverty line and, after decades of brutal war, is being built up almost from scratch.
In a joint report, the aid agencies, which include Oxfam, World Vision and the South Sudan Law Society, said it was vital that donors get their priorities for tackling poverty right from the start. The report outlines ten ‘high priority areas’ to focus donor action, including:
These priority areas however are quite diffuse, and perhaps could be better thought of as principles to guide donor investments rather than priority focus areas per se. For the latter, donors eagerly await the government’s 2011-13 South Sudan Development Plan, which has been undergoing consultation for most of this year and is still in draft form.
The coalition’s report does however emphasize the complex challenge South Sudan faces to pursue development in the midst of ongoing violence, which promotes instability, complicates development projects, and necessitates the re-direction of resources towards emergency recovery needs. The report was released not long after tribal clashes in Jonglei had bought the death toll this year to 2,611. This has been followed since by escalations in fighting in border areas which have forced much displacement and placed tremendous strain on humanitarian operations. More than 275,000 people have already been displaced by violence this year which has hindered much needed agriculture and crop cultivation.
The report also calls on donors to build up the capacity of the government of South Sudan, so it is able to provide more and better services for its people including effective security and rule of law across the country. Government structures are extremely weak and being built up from almost nothing, especially outside the main towns. The agencies say that it will take time for South Sudan to assume full responsibility for the delivery of services. NGOs are currently responsible for the majority of basic service delivery in South Sudan, such as health, education and water and sanitation, and it’s vital that donors continue supporting these services as they support the government to build up its capacity to deliver these services itself.
The aid agencies also urged donors to support agriculture and income generating opportunities for the poorest communities, and to help build up social protection schemes to help the most vulnerable in South Sudan, such as cash transfers for those prone to food insecurity. The report is available here.
President Barack Obama’s decision to send 100 combat troops to Central Africa to help local forces wipe out the remnants of the Lord’s Resistance Amy has been met with mixed feelings at home.
Some say the U.S is finally stepping up to eradicate one of the worst rebel groups in the world, notorious for abducting women and children to use as sex slaves and soldiers, and end its 20-year battle with the Ugandan government.
Others see this as a futile effort to hunt down Joseph Kony, the mastermind behind the LRA, where others have failed. Many also believe that this should not concern U.S security at a time of shrinking defense budgets.
Sceptics say the move is payback for Ugandan troops fighting al-Shabaab in Somalia and is driven by a vested interest in stabilizing the region and capitalizing on oil discoveries in Uganda.
But despite U.S support coming late, when only a few hundred of Kony’s men remain border-hopping in Central Africa, countries like South Sudan say it is definitely not too little too late.
Military and government spokespeople this week lauded the U.S action and voiced their belief that the U.S might finally eradicate the group that had eluded the forces of South Sudan, Uganda, Democratic Republic of Congo and Central African Republic for decades.
South Sudan says that the U.S has the expertise and air surveillance that these Central African countries lack and which these groups have bargained on since peace talks with Ugandan government fell apart in 2008.
In Yambio, a city close to the border with DRC, whole villages are still squatting on disused land with little food and no services. They are too afraid to return to their homes and fields for fear that the LRA will return and commit further atrocities. Some have only just been reunited with their children who have returned and escaped from the LRA.
Aid agencies say the groups have exacted a huge toll on these areas, including destroying families and agricultural production in South Sudan’s greenbelt that is vital for feeding the new nation.
Whether 100 combat troops can help Central Africa seek and flush out these terrorists once and for all remains to be seen, but the will and hope of countries like South Sudan are definitely behind them.
South Sudan is open for business. Despite a restrictive business environment and loose and unpredictable regulations, the untapped potential or the country’s natural resources, as well as the opportunities associated with improving security, governance, infrastructure and livelihoods are attracting many international businesses.
The lure is difficult to resist. 90% of the country’s land is arable for example, yet though only 3% is developed. If productive capacity were to be built, the country could be a bread basket for the region, not to mention tackle its own chronic food insecurity. South Sudan also has considerable reserves of teak and other valuable hardwoods, but exports little. Aside from oil, which is the only significantly developed natural resource sector and fills 98% the government’s coffers, South Sudan also has plentiful, largely unexploited reserves of iron ore, copper, chromium ore, zinc, tungsten, aluminum, mica, silver, gold, and hydropower.
Taking advantage of these opportunities will require huge infrastructure investments, some of which are planned or nearing completion, such as the trade route to Uganda, the development of the Kenyan port at Lamu, and the road that will connect the port to the border with South Sudan. Numerous smaller scale investments to build roads, canals, housing, storage and other facilities and services to support these businesses provide a wealth of secondary opportunities.
Still, many investors held off until South Sudan’s post secession situation was clearer. Now that the independence dust has settled, is this the time to take advantage of the opportunities in the new nation?
Some signs are positive. The country managed to issue a new currency without stalling the economy. Juba is booming. And safe. But perhaps most importantly, now that the government is receiving 75% of Sudan’s oil revenue and is in a position to sign contracts with potential contractors and investors, opportunities abound for entrepreneurs with an appetite for risk and reward.
The USA, China, India, Norway, Ethiopia, Malaysia, Turkey, Kenya, Uganda and South Africa and their respective private sectors are leading the effort to achieve business concessions in South Sudan and have all opened embassies since independence. Norwegian People’s Aid – a long time servant of development in the region – recently issued a report on land acquisition in South Sudan. The report shows that from 2007 – 2010 foreign interests sought or acquired 2.64 million hectares of land (6.52 million acres) in the agriculture, forestry and biofuel sectors alone – an area larger that the entire country of Rwanda. In a related article on the Dutch Development Agency’s blog, the countries and companies making land investments in particular sectors were detailed, exploding the myth that China has its hands firmly wrapped around the pie.
Yet instability poses a problem. Both the inter-tribal violence that has beset Jonglei and the continuing clashes in Blue Nile and South Kordofan scare away foreign investors. The data for 2011 would be interesting to see. While the independence euphoria and the freedom the government now has to make deals might have precipitated a foreign investment boom, the level of violence in 2011 has actually been higher than 2009.
Graphs showing rising foreign and domestic land investment from 2007 – 2010, with a significant in 2009, when intercommunal violence in South Sudan led to more deaths than Darfur. (Courtesy NPA, 2011)
The conflicts in South Kordofan and Blue Nile pose the biggest threat to stability, foreshadowing a possible return to war with the north. The north has been crippled by economic collapse since secession of the South and has been taking heavy losses in South Kordofan, leading some in the SPLA to suggest that now is the time to overcome their old foe. But while such a strategy might conceivably lead to the type of democratic transformation envisioned by the proponents of the ‘one Sudan’ vision, the vast majority of Southerners would not risk the development of their new nation for a pipe dream that few support. Wise investors will not hold off on these grounds least others get in first. The time is now.
Instability in South Sudan's Oil-Rich Unity State Threatens Economy
Bentiu, the capital of oil-rich Unity state located on South Sudan’s border with Sudan, appears to be like any other town. Driving through streets that are dotted with well-constructed tukuls (mud and thatch huts) and full of trucks; motorbikes; and animals, this oil-rich town seems to be relatively affluent in one of the poorest countries in the world.
Demining agencies say that while the streets of Bentiu are bustling, heavily mined roads have turned the town into a prison.
Since South Sudan’s secession from Sudan in January, aid agencies say that suspected rebel militia groups have become increasingly active and have laid many mines. Demining agencies say that rebels are laying mines quicker than they can find them, derailing expectations of South Sudan being declared mine free in 6 years.
Locals fear using the mined roads and say prices in the market for basic foodstuffs have quadrupled over the past few months as an increasing number of trade routes become inaccessible. The threat to transportation and commerce is compounded by border closures to the north as Sudan battles rebels formerly loyal to South Sudan in its southern states, which serve as a breadbasket for surrounding states and as a transit point for goods.
South Sudan¹s new government says that despite its hard fought independence and a 2005 peace accord with Sudan, President Omar al-Bashir is funding rebel groups in its northern states to try to recapture seventy-five percent of the oil fields located in Southern Sudan. As the two nations are set to meet for yet another round of talks to discussion the division of oil revenues, South Sudan is calling the renewed violence an oil war. Although South Sudan produces the crude oil, Sudan controls access to Port Sudan, the pipeline, and the refinery.
South Sudan says that Bashir's aim is to reclaim the fertile, resource rich lands by funding rebel groups to destabilize the new nation. Conversely, Sudan has accused South Sudan for supporting its rebels.
While Sudan and South Sudan trade accusations and threaten war, the people in the border states are suffering from what analysts are calling a proxy war. Rebel groups have attacked residential areas as well as civilians who venture outside their neighborhoods and use mined roads. At night, the streets of Bentiu empty long before the UN-mandated 9 pm curfew as residents hurry home to avoid crossing any rebels creeping out from bush hideouts when darkness falls.
Agencies think that rather than this being an attempt to destabilize oil production, which would harm both countries fragile economies, rebel militia groups are seeking to hamper humanitarian access to these states.
As long as President Bashir continues to block aid agencies from entering Sudan’s war-torn southern states where bombs have fallen for months and ground fighting is escalating, South Sudan¹s border states such as Unity will face greater insecurity and hunger.